Investors Chronicle: 9/28/08 - 10/5/08

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Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Satellite towns proposals



NEW DELHI: The government is set to create 35 new satellite townships, on the lines of Gurgaon and Noida, on the public-private partnership (PPP) mo
del. Such townships will come up along cities having million-plus population. The urban development ministry has forwarded its proposal to the Cabinet for its approval.

Official sources said the finance ministry has approved an initial corpus of Rs 500 crore in-principle for the project. It would be topped up every year depending on the number of projects the government receives from states, an official said.

The government is making efforts to accommodate at least 40% of the nation’s population in urban India by 2021. According to an official estimate about 70% of the country’s population is still living in rural areas. The biggest challenge before the government, however, is to create cities with adequate economic activities, urban development secretary M Ramachandran said. Keeping this in mind, the ministry is planning to develop several new urban centres around existing cities. The new policy will be aligned with the ongoing Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban renewal Mission (JNNURM).

The proposal of the urban development ministry demands active participation of cities in evolving urban centres around them. They would have to undertake various reform measures in order to qualify for receiving the central assistance. These reform measures include rationalisation of stamp duty and house tax, implementation of rent control laws and setting of self-sustainable urban transport fund, an official said.

“The proposal would facilitate developing satellite towns with major focus to link them with the parent cities so that they also offer adequate economic opportunities,” the official said. Officials are of the view that for future cities, the application of intelligence transport systems (ITS) will play a crucial role.

ITS is a transportation model for optimising existing transport infrastructure, information and communications services and plan for future.

New Details

Monday, September 29, 2008

Jai Corp - Research Report



Jai Corp – SOTP valuation arriving at a fair value of Rs707. Businesses / Investments Value Valuation Parameter (Rs in bn) Value of investment in NMSEZ NPV discounted at 15% 37.00Value of investment in MSEZ NPV discounted at 15% 59.34Value of investment in Rewas SEZ NPV discounted at 15% 13.92 Value of investment in Rewas Port NPV discounted at 15% 14.19Value of investment in Power companies NPV discounted at 14% 1.41125.86 Less: Holding company discount @ 15% 18.88106.98 Value of investment in UIVCF Discounted value of fees & profits 4.84Base Business 5x FY09E EV/EBITDA 2.66Investments* 20% discount to market value 12.37Total Value 126.85Less: Net Debt/(cash) 0.68Net Value of Jai Corp 126.17Number of shares (in millions) 178.5
Value per share - Rs 707

Source: JM Financial. (*Investments are valued as on 28th August, 2008)
Valuing the SEZ part can be the most complex,but first on simpler terms and comparing similar businesses like Mundra which is valued at 50K cr so Rewas can easily be valued at 100K cr seeing it size and magnitude, with 10% Jai's stake it alone gives a value of 10Kcr (more than its present networth) We need to understand ports to be correct here.China's Shenzhen did a net export of 75 Billion Dollars last year (half of what India does), When the Twin Sez, NMSEZ & MSEZ are up and running , can we presume it could generate a turnover of 25 Billion or 100k cr, we have to undestand the SEZ dynamics here.Real Estate, how much Jai holds directly , 2000 acre or 10000 acre(under its subsidaries), what is the quality of land it holds that impacts the valuation very much, a 100 acre land in Pune can be valued at 100cr or 1000cr depending upon location, UIOF and UIVCL corpus of more than 1 billion dollars, Real estate ventures, Gas distribution plans (could suprise the valuation front), Power plants,etc could give a valuation of about 20K cr.All above for the known values, but what about the unknown Networth (Anand Jain's 4 Billion Dollar, does some part comes into future unlocking of value for JaiCorp) In a Bullish Market scenario It is seen the market may value Jaicorp to have a networth of 40K cr by June 2009 that can give it a price of more than 2000 and at 100K cr by Dec 2010 - a magic target.

Still analyzing..................
One very important news is that UIOF (Urban Infrastructure Opportunities Fund )had a rights issue for the shareholders and corpus increased by 50 % from 2200 crores to 3260 crores . it is believed that rights was done about 2 months back and was fully subscribed. So that is good news....
Only Patience will pay in a Long Run.........

Morgan Stanley - Indian stocks sold



Mumbai: Morgan Stanley, the No 2 US investment bank, continued to offload shares of Indian companies for a third day amidst an FII hammering of Indian bourses.

The beleaguered financial giant has offloaded shares worth over Rs1,300 crore on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange over the past two days, according to bulk deal listing on the BSE and the NSE.

Morgan Stanley Mauritius old shares worth Rs550 crore worth of shares, comprising stocks of Adhunik Metalliks, Asian Electricals, DS Kulkarni, Electrosteel Castings, Ganesh Housing, GTL Ltd, JNC Project, KS Oils Ltd, Lakshmi Overseas, Megasoft Ltd, MIC Electronics, Rolta Ind, Ruchi Soya. Kumars Nat, Srei Infra, Sterling Tech, Sujanatower, Usha Martin, Voltas Ltd etc, over the past two days, according to the bulk deal listing on BSE

Morgan Stanley sold shares worth over Rs800 crore comprising stocks of Aptech, Jai Corp, JM Financial, Jaiprakash Associates, NIIT, Prakash Industries, Reliance Capital and Suzlon Energy.